My issue with these prognosticators, is they will base their predictions on everyone's season best times. I just don't think that is valid for many reasons including, and not limited to: course distances, course surfaces, course topography.
I conducted a virtual meet using ONLY the results from the eight sections. I then compiled all the team qualifiers (two teams per section) plus the individual qualifiers. I then crunched the numbers, scoring teams based on just the team qualifiers, as individual runners do not figure into team scoring. Of course, the same argument (varying courses) can be used with this method as well, but at least we are using data from each runners last race prior to the State Meet. So, going with the hot hand, and rewarding those teams/individuals riding upward momentum.
Keep in mind, this is just for fun, and just creates additional topic for any debate:
Boys AA
| Wayzata | 38 |
| Hopkins | 78 |
| STMA | 165 |
| Stillwater | 179 |
| Chaska | 184 |
| Rochester Century | 195 |
| Centennial | 195 |
| Prior Lake | 202 |
| Shakopee | 218 |
| Alexandria | 260 |
| Red Wing | 262 |
| Rosemount | 275 |
| Bemidji | 285 |
| Elk River | 304 |
| WBL | 331 |
| Andover | 350 |
Girls AA
| Wayzata | 89 |
| Willmar | 112 |
| Edina | 121 |
| Marshall | 177 |
| Lakeville South | 183 |
| STMA | 189 |
| Bemidji | 191 |
| Chaska | 202 |
| East Ridge | 207 |
| Forest Lake | 207 |
| Austin | 224 |
| Eagan | 269 |
| Centennial | 299 |
| Duluth East | 301 |
| East View | 316 |
| White Bear | 383 |
Boys AA Top 20 Individuals
| Klecker, Joe | Hopkins High School | |
| Olson, Connor | Wayzata High School | |
| Cayo, Chase | Saint Michael-Albertville High School | |
| Hesse-withbroe, Bailey | Stillwater High School | |
| Carpenter, Jaret | Wayzata High School | |
| Mahmoud, Faysao | Burnsville High School | |
| Kurak, Reed | Centennial High School | |
| Duerr, Joey | Chaska High School | |
| Eklin, Ian | Wayzata High School | |
| Ramlet, Logan | Edina High School | |
| Hoeft, Owen | Hopkins High School | |
| Hyytinen, Justin | Farmington High School | |
| Ali, Hamza | Minneapolis Washburn High School | |
| Lawson, Nick | Saint Anthony Village High School | |
| Sell, Andrew | Minneapolis Washburn High School | |
| Goodell, Jackson | Albert Lea High School | |
| Quirk, Andrew | Wayzata High School | |
| Massot, Seth | Rochester Century High School | |
| Rachel, Kyle | Shakopee High School | |
| Shaleen, Nicholas | Wayzata High School |
Girls AA Top 20 Individuals
| Hasz, Megan | Alexandria Jefferson High School | |
| Hasz, Bethany | Alexandria Jefferson High School | |
| Misgen, Tess | Shakopee High School | |
| French, Anna | Wayzata High School | |
| Armstrong, Jasmyn | Red Wing High School | |
| King, Rachel | Saint Michael-Albertville High School | |
| Christensen, Emma | Rochester John Marshall | |
| Covert, Emily | Minneapolis Washburn High School | |
| Korzenowski, Anastasia | Chanhassen High School | |
| Benner, Emma | Forest Lake | |
| Lerdall, Annika | Wayzata High School | |
| Boersma, Claire | Marshall High School | |
| Keller-miller, Michaela | Wayzata High School | |
| Mosborg, Amanda | Edina High School | |
| Hanson, Samantha | Willmar High School | |
| Betz, Emily | East Ridge HS | |
| Hamrin, Sadie | Bemidji High School | |
| Peterson, Lauren | Farmington High School | |
| Heil, Lizzy | Saint Michael-Albertville High School | |
| Berg, Maria | New Prague High School |
It will be interesting to see if this methodology is any more, or less, accurate than that of using season-best times.
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