Sunday, October 26, 2014

Minnesota State Cross Country 2014 Predictions - Class AA

Everyone will have their predictions and virtual meets this coming week in anticipation of the 2014 Minnesota State Cross Country Championships at St. Olaf College in Northfield on November 1. The AA boys, with defending champion Wayzata, kick things off at 1 PM. Followed by the AA Girls, with Wayzata going for a three-peat, at 2 PM.

My issue with these prognosticators, is they will base their predictions on everyone's season best times. I just don't think that is valid for many reasons including, and not limited to: course distances, course surfaces, course topography.

I conducted a virtual meet using ONLY the results from the eight sections. I then compiled all the team qualifiers (two teams per section) plus the individual qualifiers. I then crunched the numbers, scoring teams based on just the team qualifiers, as individual runners do not figure into team scoring. Of course, the same argument (varying courses) can be used with this method as well, but at least we are using data from each runners last race prior to the State Meet. So, going with the hot hand, and rewarding those teams/individuals riding upward momentum.

Keep in mind, this is just for fun, and just creates additional topic for any debate:

Boys AA

Rochester Century195
Prior Lake202
Red Wing262
Elk River304

Girls AA

Wayzata 89
Willmar 112
Edina 121
Marshall 177
Lakeville South 183
STMA 189
Bemidji 191
Chaska 202
East Ridge 207
Forest Lake 207
Austin 224
Eagan 269
Centennial 299
Duluth East 301
East View 316
White Bear 383

Boys AA Top 20 Individuals

Klecker, Joe
Hopkins High School
Olson, Connor
Wayzata High School
Cayo, Chase
Saint Michael-Albertville High School
Hesse-withbroe, Bailey
Stillwater High School
Carpenter, Jaret
Wayzata High School
Mahmoud, Faysao
Burnsville High School
Kurak, Reed
Centennial High School
Duerr, Joey
Chaska High School
Eklin, Ian
Wayzata High School
Ramlet, Logan
Edina High School
Hoeft, Owen
Hopkins High School
Hyytinen, Justin
Farmington High School
Ali, Hamza
Minneapolis Washburn High School
Lawson, Nick
Saint Anthony Village High School
Sell, Andrew
Minneapolis Washburn High School
Goodell, Jackson
Albert Lea High School
Quirk, Andrew
Wayzata High School
Massot, Seth
Rochester Century High School
Rachel, Kyle
Shakopee High School
Shaleen, Nicholas
Wayzata High School

Girls AA Top 20 Individuals

Hasz, Megan
Alexandria Jefferson High School
Hasz, Bethany
Alexandria Jefferson High School
Misgen, Tess
Shakopee High School
French, Anna
Wayzata High School
Armstrong, Jasmyn
Red Wing High School
King, Rachel
Saint Michael-Albertville High School
Christensen, Emma
Rochester John Marshall
Covert, Emily
Minneapolis Washburn High School
Korzenowski, Anastasia
Chanhassen High School
Benner, Emma Forest Lake
Lerdall, Annika
Wayzata High School
Boersma, Claire
Marshall High School
Keller-miller, Michaela
Wayzata High School
Mosborg, Amanda
Edina High School
Hanson, Samantha
Willmar High School
Betz, Emily
East Ridge HS
Hamrin, Sadie
Bemidji High School
Peterson, Lauren
Farmington High School
Heil, Lizzy
Saint Michael-Albertville High School
Berg, Maria
New Prague High School

It will be interesting to see if this methodology is any more, or less, accurate than that of using season-best times.

Top MN Freshmen XC 2014

Top 10 Minnesota Freshmen (as of 10/26/2014) by various classes and MN State Sections (AA Only) as ranked by MileSplit database.

Note: Click on each image for larger viewing of screenshot.

Overall (AA & A)

AA Only

A Only